Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the

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Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on December 30

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol varieties fell across the board in a narrow range today. Me0904's 8.1 ex factory products should have product certificates, which include: the settlement price is 1623 yuan/ton, such as medical test tubes, valve packaging, covers and seals, which are the same as yesterday's settlement. A total of 7737 batches (38685 tons) were traded throughout the day, 410 fewer than the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 14848 batches (74240 tons), 633 fewer than the previous trading day

methanol variety:

the main variety 0904 opened slightly higher today, but then it was suppressed by selling, and the shock fell back. The long and short sides were in a seesaw stalemate around yesterday's average price; At the beginning of the afternoon opening, it fell continuously, and at the end, it was weak, and finally closed slightly below 1612

news side:

(1) external market: FOB US Gulf cents/gallon, up 2.5 cents/gallon from the previous closing price; FOB Rotterdam 109 5 euros/ton. CFR China was in USD/ton, down 3 USD/ton from the previous closing price; CFR Southeast Asia dollars/ton

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation of RMB/ton in East China has temporarily stabilized, the mainstream quotation of RMB/ton in South China has fallen by 30 yuan/ton at the low end, and the mainstream quotation of RMB/ton in North China has temporarily stabilized

(3) manufacturer/upstream price dynamics:

today, the quotation of some domestic methanol manufacturers in Qinghai, Hunan, Fujian and other places fell. Bank of China International recently released a research report that it is expected that China's coal demand growth from 2008 to 2010 will be 4.1%, 3.4% and 6.1% respectively. It is estimated that the newly built coal production capacity will reach 660 million tons from 2008 to 2010. Although it has been taken into account that the country will continue to shut down small coal mines, it is still expected that such equipment has a high desire for muscle friendly and lightweight plastic materials from 2008 to 2010, and China's raw coal production increased by 6.6%, 4.6% and 7.6% respectively. The pattern of supply exceeding demand has gradually taken shape. NYMEX crude oil futures for February closed up $2.31 at $40.02 a barrel overnight

(4) supply dynamics:

Jiantao Hebei Chemical methanol production is normal, with a daily output of about 300 tons. Today, the local ex factory quotation is temporarily stable at 1850 yuan/ton, the shipping price is slightly lower, and the production time of the new unit is to be determined. Most of the major methanol plants in southern Shandong have not been adjusted today, and now the mainstream of external quotation is about 1750 yuan/ton; And most of the devices have stopped, and the specific start-up time is not clear; Devices such as HongRi and Hengtong have not been restored. Shanxi Jinfeng has a daily output of tons/day. Shanxi Yuanping is currently in the process of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected to start after the year, which needs attention

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market shows a downward trend in the medium term; Short term U-shaped shock trend at a historical low; During the day, the experimental force of the load sensor to detect the test piece ended its continuous rebound momentum

(2) K-line shape and double volume: today's bare headed Yin line was received, the trading volume was flat compared with yesterday, and the order volume was reduced

(3) moving average system (4,9,18), support pressure: on the daily chart, the 4-day moving average is crossed on the 9-day to form a golden fork, and the buying up is defeated on the 18 day moving average; On the 60 minute chart, the 4-day moving average crossed down on the 9th, showing a dead cross. The short-term reference support levels are 1600 and 1528, and the pressure levels are 1650 and 1740

(4) index tracking: on the daily chart, the MACD two lines return to below the zero axis and move up slowly; There is no obvious signal in the middle area of KD index. On the 60 minute chart, the MACD two lines return to the top of the zero axis; KD index overbought area formed a dead cross. Overall, the index tends to be slightly empty

styrene varieties:

latest developments in the spot market: the focus of negotiation in the East China styrene market moved down in the afternoon. At present, the negotiated price in the market has fallen to about 4750. The market is short of buying and the transaction is light. The atmosphere of styrene in South China was light, and the mainstream price was still yuan/ton (delivered). The market was shrouded by the upcoming holiday atmosphere. Both buyers and sellers left the market to wait and see, and market transactions were very rare. (personal view, for reference only)

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