Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the

2022-08-19
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Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on November 28

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol varieties fell in a narrow range as a whole today. The settlement price of me0904 was 1894 yuan/ton, up -7 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 10138 batches (50690 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 1863 batches from the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 13927 batches (69635 tons), a decrease of 439 batches from the previous trading day

methanol varieties:

today's main variety 0904 opened slightly higher today, continued to fall after a short rise, fell below the 1900 level, and stopped falling and consolidated around 1870; There was a weak rebound in the early afternoon and fell again in the late afternoon, ending at 1871/ton

message side:

(1) external market: FOB US Gulf 59 5 cents/gallon, FOB Rotterdam 157 75 euros/ton. CFR China is at USD/ton level; CFR Southeast Asia is at USD/ton level

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation in East China is temporarily stable at yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation in South China is temporarily stable at yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation in North China is yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable

(3) manufacturers/upstream dynamics:

today, the quotation of domestic methanol manufacturers is generally stable. Experts from China Logistics Information Center believe that the traditional peak consumption season of coal in the fourth quarter will help it maintain the current price or slow down the downward trend of price. However, as the development of straw in domestic real estate, steel, chemical industry, thermal power generation, shipbuilding and other related downstream industries slows down, China's coal market demand will further weaken in the coming months, and coal prices may further fall. On Thursday (November 27), the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed, and Brent futures closed at $53.13/barrel in January, down $0.79

(4) supply dynamics:

the million ton coking expansion project of Shaanxi Shaanxi Coking Chemical Co., Ltd. started construction recently. The project is expected to invest 1billion yuan and the construction period is one and a half years. Shanxi Dachuan Zhongtian coal chemical methanol plant has been in shutdown since August. So far, it has not returned to normal due to the continuous downturn of the market. The manufacturer said that the specific start-up time is not clear. Xiamen port just arrived at 5000 tons of methanol from the middle east the night before yesterday, and it is still in the process of unloading and customs declaration. It is expected that the external sales quotation will start next week

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market shows a downward trend in the medium term; The tank vibrates in 1800~2000 in the short term; The day closed down slightly

(2) K-line shape and volume price relationship: continue to receive the negative line, the trading volume has increased, and the order volume has decreased. On the eve of the weekend, the market reduced its positions slightly, and there was no sign of breaking the shock deadlock

(3) moving average system (4,9 is only applicable to the test and inspection of the same samples or finished products in large quantities, 18). Support pressure: from the daily chart, the moving average system is in the situation of stranding and finishing; The 4-day moving average on the 60 minute chart went down continuously on the 9th and 18th, and was empty. The short-term reference support level is 1800, but whether it is placed vertically or laterally, it is 1670, and the pressure level is 1930 and 2000

(4) index: on the daily chart, MACD moves up slowly below the zero axis; The middle zone of KD index tends to bond. On the 60 minute chart, the two lines of MACD tend to bond; The KD index goes down in the middle zone. Overall, the indicators tend to be neutral

styrene varieties:

latest developments in the spot market: East China styrene market is stable, market offers have increased slightly, and the mainstream price remains open at 4800 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is sluggish and difficult to change, and the transaction is light. (personal view, for reference only)

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