Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the

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Comments on the chemical warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on December 12

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that methanol varieties fell in a narrow range as a whole today. The settlement price of me0904 was 1686 yuan/ton, up -17 yuan/ton from yesterday's settlement. A total of 6927 batches (34635 tons) were traded throughout the day, a decrease of 1690 batches from the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 14614 batches (73070 tons), a decrease of 375 batches from the previous trading day

the specific method of methanol varieties is as follows: take down the sample table and protective ring:

the main variety 0904 opened slightly higher in the early trading 1715, and then fluctuated lower. At the beginning of the afternoon, it fell to the lowest 1663 within the day, then fluctuated and rebounded, and fell slightly in the late trading, and finally closed at 1675

message side:

(1) external market: FOB US Gulf cents/gallon fell 1 cent/gallon, FOB Rotterdam 142 5 euros/ton. CFR China fell USD/T in USD/T; CFR Southeast Asia is at USD/ton level

(2) domestic market: as of press time, the mainstream quotation of RMB/ton in East China has been temporarily stable, the mainstream quotation of RMB/ton in South China has fallen by 30 yuan/ton at the low end and 20 yuan/ton at the high end, and the mainstream quotation of RMB/ton in North China has been temporarily stable

(3) manufacturers/upstream dynamics:

today, the quotation of most domestic methanol manufacturers remained stable, the quotation in Lunan, Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the quotation of some manufacturers in Yunnan and Anhui decreased. On the 11th, the price of Shuozhou ordinary mixed coal with 4500 kcal calorific value in Qinhuangdao was 355 yuan/ton ~ 370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi excellent mixed coal with 6000 kcal calorific value was 560 yuan/ton ~ 580 yuan/ton. NYMEX crude oil January futures closed up $4.46 at $47.98 a barrel overnight

(4) supply dynamics:

Shandong Luxi Chemical methanol plant maintained its early stage. Due to its small output, the quotation was temporarily stable. At present, the local ex factory quotation is 2000 yuan/ton. The contact terminals of the connecting column cannot be mixed together. Some orders are flexible, and the shipment situation is general. Shandong Yankuang Group maintained the early stage in terms of devices: Guohong, international and Yishan devices were not restored, and Lunan and Cathay Pacific were normal; Its China macro initially plans to start at the end of the month, and Yishan plans to resume around the middle of the month. The specific situation needs attention. Sichuan Yibin Tianke's 90000 T/a methanol plant has been restarted a few days ago

technical aspect (continuous methanol):

(1) price trend: the market shows a downward trend in the medium term; Short term range fluctuation; The day ended lower

(2) K-line shape and double volume: the negative line is received today, the trading volume has shrunk, and the order volume has decreased. The market wait-and-see mood is increasing day by day, and we are waiting for the information to guide the direction next week

(3) moving average system (4,9,18), support pressure: the moving average on the daily chart is arranged in short positions, and the 9-day moving average of intraday prices is blocked; The short position arrangement of the moving average system on the 60 minute chart is emerging. Short term reference support levels 1646 and 1600, pressure levels 1760 and 1800

(4) index: on the daily chart, MACD is flat below the zero axis; KD indicator oversold area signal is not obvious. On the 60 minute chart, the two lines below the zero axis of MACD are leveled; The KD index continues to move down after the dead cross in the middle area. Overall, the indicators tend to be neutral

then start or end the test of styrene varieties normally:

latest developments in the spot market (5) after stabilizing for 1H without leakage: East China styrene showed a downward trend in the intraday. At present, the mainstream price of the market is yuan/ton, and the market opened high and went low for three consecutive days, indicating that the pressure near 5000 is large, and it is difficult to break through in the short term. In the Styrene Market in South China, the intraday goods were tight and the price rose. It was heard that the refinery price rose again, and the mainstream offer was moved up to yuan/ton (delivery price). As it was the weekend, the market transaction was not large-scale. (personal view, for reference only)

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